The complex machinery of Russian statecraft continues to confound Western analysts, but recent research from leading security think tanks offers new frameworks for understanding Kremlin operations. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and Atlantic Council have published comprehensive analyses that shed light on Russia’s evolving tactics and strategic positioning on the global stage.
According to RUSI researchers, sanctions against Russia, while effective, face significant implementation challenges due to bureaucratic mechanisms within the EU. “The main reason why sanctions are imposed on Russia is to help Ukraine,” notes Tom Keatinge, Director of RUSI’s Centre for Financial Security. “Russia has the opportunity to find ingenious ways to avoid sanctions,” he adds, highlighting the cat-and-mouse nature of economic countermeasures.
The effectiveness of these measures comes at a critical juncture as Russia adapts its approach to both economic pressure and military engagement. Putin’s administration has demonstrated remarkable resilience against Western sanctions, leveraging alternative financial channels and deepening economic relationships with partners outside the Western alliance system.
Rusi – Strategic Implications for Ukraine and Europe
Dr. Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, observes that “how the United States chooses to shift the burdens of the war onto Europe will shape what the Europeans can accomplish.” This burden-sharing dynamic has become increasingly important as Western capitals recalibrate their support strategies.
The research indicates two potential pathways forward: continued defense support enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength, or pressure to accept settlement terms regardless of battlefield conditions. This divergence represents a fundamental strategic choice with implications extending far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Adnan Ćerimagić’s analysis titled “A Dangerous Standoff: The Battle for Bosnia’s Institutions” further illustrates how Russia’s influence extends into the Balkans, creating what security experts describe as a multi-front approach to challenging European security architecture.
Rusi – Technology’s Transformative Role
Technology emerges as a crucial battlefield component in these analyses. Paul O’Neill, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, notes that “technology is having a major impact on the battlefield. It is certainly disrupting the way we have traditionally done things. It is driving up demand for people with higher STEM skills.”
This technological dimension creates both vulnerabilities and opportunities for countering Russian influence operations. The Jamestown Foundation’s research highlights how Russia has integrated advanced cyber capabilities with traditional information warfare techniques to create hybrid influence mechanisms that operate below the threshold of conventional conflict.
The Atlantic Council’s research on energy security provides additional context, suggesting that fluctuations in energy policy could inadvertently strengthen Moscow’s war machine. Their analysis of Trump-era energy policies indicates that certain approaches to global energy markets might inadvertently benefit Russian strategic interests by stabilizing revenue streams that finance military operations.
Financial Systems as Battlegrounds
Both RUSI and the Atlantic Council emphasize the centrality of financial systems in this geopolitical contest. “Fighting Financial Crime is Central to Ukraine’s Future,” states one RUSI commentary, highlighting how corruption and financial vulnerability create openings for malign influence.
The research collectively suggests that understanding the Kremlin requires a multidisciplinary approach that encompasses financial intelligence, technological assessment, and traditional geopolitical analysis. This integrated methodology offers a more complete picture of Russian strategic thinking than conventional approaches focused primarily on military capabilities.
Defense experts emphasize that sanctions alone cannot contain Russian ambitions without complementary measures to strengthen institutional resilience across Europe’s eastern frontier. “The Impending Collapse of Russia Sanctions: The Cost of Inaction,” warns of strategic gaps that could undermine the sanctions regime’s effectiveness if not addressed promptly.
The most recent publications from these institutions suggest a growing consensus that Western responses must evolve beyond reactive measures toward more proactive strategies that anticipate Russian adaptations. This includes developing more nimble sanctions mechanisms, strengthening cybersecurity cooperation, and building strategic redundancy into critical systems.
For decision-makers seeking to navigate these complex dynamics, the research offers practical frameworks while acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of the strategic environment. As one RUSI expert noted during a recent roundtable, “The challenge isn’t just understanding what the Kremlin is doing today, but anticipating how it will adapt tomorrow.”
These insights provide essential context for policymakers as they recalibrate approaches to European security and trans-Atlantic cooperation in an increasingly contested international environment.
