Hey there, weather nerds and concerned citizens! Sarah Hoffman here, coming at you with some genuinely troubling news that’s been floating around the meteorological community (pun absolutely intended).
Look, I’m usually the first person to find the silver lining in any cloud formation, but this latest development has even my perpetually optimistic brain in a bit of a tailspin. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – yes, that’s really what they’re calling it, though sadly it has nothing to do with adorable Shiba Inus – has implemented massive budget cuts that are now directly impacting our nation’s ability to predict dangerous weather. And the timing couldn’t be worse.
Weather – The Sky-High Impact of Budget Cuts
With significant job cuts hammering the National Weather Service, they’re being forced to eliminate or reduce vital weather balloon launches in eight northern locations. For those unfamiliar with these magical atmospheric explorers, weather balloons are basically the unsung heroes of meteorology. They soar up to 100,000 feet carrying sensors (called radiosondes) that measure temperature, humidity, wind speed, and other crucial data points that help forecasters determine what’s brewing in our atmosphere.
As former NOAA chief D. James Baker put it: “They give you information you can’t get any other way.” That’s not hyperbole, folks – that’s science. These twice-daily launches from approximately 100 locations have been the backbone of American weather forecasting for decades.
Yet here we are, watching this critical infrastructure crumble in real-time.
Weather – Where Are the Cuts Happening?
The weather service is completely eliminating balloon launches in Omaha, Nebraska and Rapid City, South Dakota. Meanwhile, they’re cutting from twice daily to once daily launches in:
- Aberdeen, South Dakota
- Grand Junction, Colorado
- Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Gaylord, Michigan
- North Platte, Nebraska
- Riverton, Wyoming
These cuts follow earlier reductions in Albany, New York and Gray, Maine, plus the complete elimination of launches in Kotzebue, Alaska. All told, that’s 11 announced sites with reduced or eliminated balloon observations – roughly one out of nine total launch locations across the U.S. and its territories.
Why This Matters (Especially Right Now)
Let me be crystal clear about something: this isn’t just weather nerds like me getting upset about missing data points. According to University of Oklahoma environment professor Renee McPherson, “This frankly is just dangerous.”
And the timing? Oh, it couldn’t be worse. We’re heading straight into severe weather season for much of the country. As McPherson explained, “For those of us east of the Rocky Mountains, this is probably the worst time of year. It’s the time of year that we have some of our largest tornado outbreaks, especially as we move into April and May.”
Think of weather forecasting like a three-layer cake (mmm, cake). Satellites give us the top view, ground measurements and radar show what’s happening at the bottom, but those weather balloons? They’re the essential middle layer where most of our weather actually develops. Without that middle layer, our forecasting capabilities become significantly compromised.
The Expert Consensus: This Is Bad
When it comes to weather science, getting eight different scientists, meteorologists, and former top officials at NOAA to agree on anything is practically a miracle. Yet they’re all singing the same tune here: these cuts will degrade the accuracy of forecasts just as dangerous weather patterns intensify.
Ryan Maue, who served as NOAA’s chief scientist at the end of the Trump administration, didn’t mince words: “Not only is this embarrassing for NOAA, the cessation of weather balloon launches will worsen America’s weather forecasts.”
University at Albany meteorology professor Kristen Corbosiero summed up her reaction with a simple “wow” when looking at the map of reduced launches. The gaps in coverage are significant and concerning, especially since Albany itself has been reduced to a single nightly launch.
How Did We Get Here?
The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) fired hundreds – likely more than 1,000 – NOAA workers earlier this year. Probationary employees received letters telling them they would still get paid but should not report to work. This staff reduction has directly led to the inability to maintain regular balloon launches.
Prior to these cuts, NOAA had an impressive track record, averaging only about one outage of balloon launches per day from 2021 to 2024. Now, meteorologists Jeff Masters and Tomer Burg calculate that 14 of 83 U.S. balloon sites (17%) are doing partial or no launches.
The Cost of Cutting Corners
Here’s what frustrates me the most about this situation: these weather balloons aren’t some extravagant luxury item in the meteorological world. They’re essential infrastructure that directly impacts public safety. When former NOAA chief Baker had to make budget cuts during his tenure, he specifically refused to cut observation tools like weather balloons because of their crucial importance.
Former National Weather Service Director Elbert “Joe” Friday explained that these balloons provide detailed lower atmospheric data on temperature and humidity that determines whether conditions are right for severe storms and how intense they might become. This is precisely the information needed to issue timely warnings that save lives.
What Happens Next?
When pressed about the impacts, Weather Service spokesperson Susan Buchanan acknowledged, “The more data we can feed into our weather models, the more accurate our forecasts,” though she declined to “speculate on the extent of future impacts.”
But meteorologists aren’t being so circumspect. There’s widespread agreement that forecast accuracy will decline, particularly for severe weather events that require precise atmospheric data. The regions most immediately affected are those in the northern United States – right around where the jet stream (that powerful river of air that moves weather systems across the continent) typically flows this time of year.
The Bottom Line
I’m not usually one to sound alarm bells unnecessarily, but this situation deserves our attention. Weather forecasting isn’t just about knowing whether to pack an umbrella; it’s about predicting dangerous conditions that threaten lives and property. As climate change continues to intensify extreme weather events, reducing our forecasting capabilities seems like the absolute last thing we should be doing.
So what can we do? Stay informed, contact your representatives, and understand that your local meteorologist might be working with one hand tied behind their back for the foreseeable future. When severe weather threatens, pay extra attention to updates and warnings, knowing they may come with less lead time than we’ve grown accustomed to.
Like my grandma used to say before she’d go out storm chasing (okay, she wasn’t actually a storm chaser, but she was surprisingly good at predicting rain): “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always know where your flashlight is.” Words to live by, especially as we navigate these stormy forecasting waters ahead.
